Miner capitulation in the cryptocurrency market is slowly fading away, leading to an optimistic future outlook for the price of Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency. A crypto analyst has set a bold prediction of $200,000 for BTC, marking a new all-time high for the pioneer cryptocurrency.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on July 17, a crypto analyst known as ‘Cryptonary’ forecasted that Bitcoin’s price is on track to reach $223,000 in the near future. This optimistic projection is based on BTC’s historical trends and Miner Capitulation after each halving cycle.
Cryptonary highlighted BTC’s Miner Capitulation at bear market lows, after each Bitcoin halving, and significant events like FTX collapse, COVID-19, and crypto banning in China. The analyst shared a price chart of BTC’s Hash Ribbon, emphasizing the correlation between Miner Capitulation and price surges in Bitcoin’s value following halving events.
Historically, the conclusion of Miner Capitulation periods after cyclic Bitcoin halving events has led to substantial price increases in Bitcoin’s value in the subsequent months and years. The Hash Ribbon metric, a prominent market indicator, suggests that BTC tends to hit its bottom when miners capitulate due to high mining costs and low revenue.
Miner Capitulation occurs when miners shut down their hardware and stop mining Bitcoin to start selling off their coin reserves. This usually happens when mining operations become unprofitable or when BTC’s price falls below a certain level.
The Hash Ribbon metric highlighted by Cryptonary aligns with Bitcoin’s previous declines to new lows during Miner Capitulation periods from May and June. Various analysts had suggested that BTC may have reached its price bottom during this period, triggered by massive sell-offs by BTC miners.
By analyzing various Miner Capitulation periods and their characteristics, Cryptonary outlined past bull cycles where Bitcoin’s price surged explosively after each Miner Capitulation period and Bitcoin halving event. Following the 2012 halving, BTC saw a price increase of 5,110.6%. In 2016, after another halving, the price surged by 3,346.5%, and in the 2020 halving cycle, the cryptocurrency increased by 591.75% to new highs.
Based on historical post-halving trends and the expectation that the current Miner Capitulation is nearing its end, Cryptonary suggested that an exponential decay model indicates BTC’s price could potentially peak at $223,000 in this cycle.
In another X post, crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe predicted that Bitcoin could rally towards $110,000. Van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin miners are still capitulating, and the true hash rate drawdown has reached new lows, signaling severe levels similar to the FTX collapse in 2022.
The heavy drawdown in hash rates indicates a cycle low, suggesting that the worst period of the current cycle may have passed. Historically, such lows often precede price recoveries, and since the news about Mt. Gox’s repayment plans, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 20%. Van de Poppe predicts that Bitcoin’s next leg up could be $110,000 from its current price of $64,479.
Overall, the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s price outlook is fueled by the diminishing Miner Capitulation and historical trends that suggest significant price surges following halving events. Both analysts project substantial price increases for Bitcoin, with potential peaks ranging from $200,000 to $223,000 and $110,000, respectively. As the market continues to evolve, only time will tell if these predictions come to fruition.
