The year 2024 started off with a bang for Bitcoin, as it rode a wave of strong momentum and the launch of spot ETFs in January to reach a new all-time high of $73,737 by mid-March. However, the premier cryptocurrency has since experienced a slowdown, leading many investors and crypto enthusiasts to question whether the bull cycle has come to an end. A recent report from blockchain firm IntoTheBlock has shed some light on the behavior of Bitcoin during a halving year and how it influences the progression of the bull cycle.
The fourth halving event in April saw miners’ rewards decrease from 12.5 to 6.25, marking a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s history. While halving events are typically viewed as bullish for the cryptocurrency, the months following this latest halving have not been as positive as expected. According to IntoTheBlock’s data, Bitcoin has declined by 12% from its halving value of $63,900. Despite this downturn, Bitcoin’s current position is still better than pre-halving projections, offering a glimmer of hope for investors.
IntoTheBlock’s report also highlighted a historical trend that suggests the average time between a Bitcoin halving and the next peak is 480 days. If this pattern holds true, the next cycle peak could be expected sometime around the summer of 2025. In the meantime, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a price range of $55,000 to $69,000 over the past two quarters, with a break above $70,000 potentially signaling the resumption of the bull cycle.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has echoed similar sentiments about Bitcoin’s current state, suggesting that the cryptocurrency is only halfway through its bull cycle and has not yet reached the retail bubble phase. This phase typically involves a significant increase in retail investors entering the market, driving up demand and prices. However, Ju noted that BTC demand in certain markets, particularly the United States, appears to be weakening, as indicated by falling Coinbase spot trading volume dominance.
Ju expressed optimism that US BTC demand could bounce back in the fourth quarter, potentially reigniting the bull cycle. As of the latest data, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $54,000 with a slight uptick in the last 24 hours, but down more than 8.5% over the past week according to CoinGecko. The daily chart shows a relatively stable price trend, indicating a period of consolidation for the cryptocurrency.
Overall, while Bitcoin may have hit a temporary roadblock in its bull cycle, there are still signals of potential growth and resurgence in the future. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve and adapt, investors will be closely watching for signs of a renewed uptrend in Bitcoin’s price and market activity.
